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Post Info TOPIC: Vegas Locks


Negus

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hopefully u realize this by now, but vegas sets the line on monday, and then adjust it based on how the public bets.  there goal is to get to as close to 50/50 as possible.  so say if one team is at +3, and all the money goes to that team, vegas adjust the line. 

with that said, the lines changing and knowing when to place ur bet is a huge factor in betting.  if ur a smart better, and u see a line at +3 and u think that team is flat out win, u jump all over it before the line changes.  so obviously, if u place a bet on monday it is not neccessarly going to be the same as someone who bets on the same 2 teams on friday and the odds of him winning are not as good since the point difference is different. 

getting back to the point, if me n u make our picks today, and danny waits til saturday, he risks the spread changing on him which is y u got the better bet last week on the miami/browns game.  as long as we are using the same column, this is fine.



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Young Money

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i hope you realize this by now, but im in first place in this game so maybe you should take your advice from me. yes i know how betting lines work, but they are also for money. were playing a game between friends so i thought betting on the same line might be a little more fair. i obviously forgot, like the draft bold prediction game, that this is a game of life or death so ill continue to bet the early lines and hope they change by sunday so danny will suffer.



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Negus

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relax, ur 1 game advantage must be making ur head big. ur the one complaining that the lines arent being posted.  i literally cant copy and paste the column onto a post.  i said if u can do it, then go for it.  but instead ur arguing with me every step of the way. im just saying i dont think its a big deal if the lines change when we post our bets



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Young Money

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so ur agreeing to the 9ers eagles bet?

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Negus

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hell no, im staying far away from the eagles until that d comes together



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Young Money

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haha maclin and vick banged up uh ohhhhh

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Negus

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i do think there gonna win, but by 9 is a lot.  i woulda bet a ton that the eagles would have smashed the giants by 10 last week n they lost by 2tds.  no way i would place money on the eagles this week



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Young Money

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i swapped that game for the pats - raiders since you didnt want to do a side bet:


Bills (-3) over Bengals

Vikings (-2) over KC

49ers (-9) over dream team

Falcons (-4.5) over Seahawks

Giants (-1.5) over Cardinals


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Young Money

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my least confident bet is the only one we agree on - vikes/chiefs

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Negus

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i no, it sucks.  looked a lot worse on sunday tho, they were saying vick could be out 3-4 weeks with a broken hand and maclin was gonna b out a few weeks also.  but there both back at practice today so there both gonna play which is good.



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Negus

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6ixty wrote:

i swapped that game for the pats - raiders since you didnt want to do a side bet:


Bills (-3) over Bengals

Vikings (-2) over KC

49ers (-9) over dream team

Falcons (-4.5) over Seahawks

Giants (-1.5) over Cardinals


 typo: 49ers are +9.

ill be honest, i agree with all those bets (other than the 49ers, im just staying away from it) n they all look good but they all scare me a little too haha. i thought this was a rough week. 



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Negus

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check this out!  this guy explains exatcly what i was writing about yesterday, expect he knows what hes talking about!

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/5238/viva-las-vegas-making-sense-of-teaser-bets-in-week-4-of-the-nfl-season



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Young Money

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im really going back and forth between the raiders and eagles games. am i allowed to switch them or is it too late?

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Negus

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u can change up to gametime, just make sure u go by the correct spread!



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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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1. Redskins(-3) over Rams

2. Giants (-1.5) over Cardinals

3. Falcons (-4.5) over Seahawks

4. Raiders (+6) over New England

5. Colts (+10) over Buccaneers



-- Edited by Chase Cox on Sunday 2nd of October 2011 04:32:24 PM

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Negus

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MFisH wrote:

1. Steelers (+3.5) over Houston

2. Saints (-7) over Jags

3. Broncos (+13) over GB

4. Vikings (-2) over KC

5. Browns (PK) over Titans


 me: 1-4. Not as bad as philly!

nick: 2-3

danny: 2-2 (1 game left)



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Negus

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Year to Date:

After another strong performance here is where we still through 3 weeks:


nick: 7-6-2 (54%)

fish: 5-8-2 (38%)

danny: 5-9-1 (35%)

(pushes dont count for total games. so to get the % u do games won/ total games not including pushes)



-- Edited by MFisH on Tuesday 4th of October 2011 01:43:29 PM

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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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Another good week and I'll be in the lead b!tches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Guru

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Not spread, but the Over Under for Buffalo/Philly is 50 points. Give me the over!

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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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My experience with betting the O/U...

...bet the opposite of whatever I think will happen.

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Negus

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http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds

use LAST column: SBGGLOBAL.COM



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Young Money

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yuck!

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Negus

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lets just say after going 0-2 with the steelers the past 2 weeks, i am staying away from that game



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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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Let me start this week off. I must admit that I seem to pick better when I make make my picks at 12:50 PM Sunday, but fcuk it. Here they go...

1. NY Jets (+9) over Patriots

2. San Diego (-3.5) over Denver

3. Tampa Bay (+1.5) over San Francisco

4. Kansas City (+1) over Indianapolis

5. NY Giants (-9.5) over Seattle

P.S. I will change my picks up until game time, if I so choose. B!tches.


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Guru

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Im jumping into the foray this week bitches.


1. New Orleans Saints (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers

2.NY Jets (+9) over New England Patriots

3.San Diego Super Chargers (-3.5) over Denver Broncos

4. Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings

5.Chicago Bears (+5.5) over Detroit Lions

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Negus

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1. Eagles (-1.5) over Bills (HELLLOO Danny Watkins)

2. Raiders (+5.5) over Texans

3. Bengals (+1) over Jags

4. Chargers (-3.5) over Broncos

5. Bears (+5) over Lions

 



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Negus

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fyi, i think i realzie y we all had different spreads before.  the betting sites change which column they are on every day.  so when i said use the far right column one day it might be oddsmaker.com and the next day it is sbcglobal.com which is y the lines seem like there changing.  for now i am just going to pick one website to use, and just pay attention to it.  so far me josh n danny all used sbcglobal correctly, nick make sure u use that websites lines when making ur picks!



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Young Money

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Lions (-5.5) over Bears

Chargers (-3.5) over Donkeys

Bengals (+1) over Jags

Raiders (+5.5) over Texans

Bucs (+1.5) over 9ers

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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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MFisH wrote:

fyi, i think i realzie y we all had different spreads before.  the betting sites change which column they are on every day.  so when i said use the far right column one day it might be oddsmaker.com and the next day it is sbcglobal.com which is y the lines seem like there changing.  for now i am just going to pick one website to use, and just pay attention to it.  so far me josh n danny all used sbcglobal correctly, nick make sure u use that websites lines when making ur picks!


 Either that, or just post the spreads directly on the forum on like Thursday or Friday and we just go by them.



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Negus

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MFisH wrote:

1. Eagles (-1.5) over Bills (HELLLOO Danny Watkins)

2. Raiders (+5.5) over Texans

3. Bengals (+1) over Jags

4. Chargers (-3.5) over Broncos

5. Bears (+5) over Lions

 


 week 4 results:

nick: 4-1
me: 3-2

josh: 1-3-1

danny: 2-2-1



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Negus

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Year to Date:

nick: 11-7-2 (55%)

fish: 8-10-2 (40%)

danny: 7-11-2 (35%)

josh: 1-3-1 (20%) 



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Young Money

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aight im opening an account on sportsbook.com so we can throw some money on this bitch. me and fish looked at it last night and i think if we put our nfl knowledge together (along with a few bucks) we can win some money and have even more reason to cheer for teams that we dont give a **** about...

take a look and let me know what youre thinking. we can parlay anything we want together- straight lines, w/ spread and over/under. obvi the more you parlay the more you win. placing 50 on 5 games with the spread returns 1250!

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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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Nick, goodluck with your account. Since it is illegal to sports gamble in the US, it is like jumping through rings of fire to add money to your account. I have an account with them.



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Negus

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before i read this post i tried logging on to the website and my work blocked it!  im pissed i wanted to mess around with it.

danny, ppl bet all the time online, if u cant do it through this website than where do u suggest?



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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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Your credit card companies will decline the charges if you try using them. The only way to get money on your account is through some very fishy third party PayPal like websites. You used to be able to buy those prepaid Visa giftcards and use those, but even those were getting declined for me.

GOOD LUCK, let me know if you can find a way to add money to your account, I'll gladly put in some bets. The more money you bet with them, the more money they give you as bonus, since they know most jerks will just lose it! They gave me an extra $100 when I put $100 on my account last Christmas.

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Negus

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week 6 lines: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds

please use SBGGLOBAL.COM



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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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By the way, Fish, my last bet I made on Sportsbook was a $50 bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl.

I placed the bet at the start of the playoffs, which gave me 15:1 odds. I had already started picking out **** to buy!

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Negus

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haha so was I!

danny, my question is, is it hard getting your money from them after we win our huge 3 team paraly bets?



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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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That I do not know, I would be careful to read the fine print when it comes to claiming your money you win.

I put $100 on my account originally, got it up to as high as $281, and lost it all during NFL playoffs.

So, I have ZERO experience in that department!

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Young Money

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Panthers (+3.5) over Falcons: Panthers have looked great, Falcons not so much. division game

49ers (+4) over Lions: Short week for the lions, 49ers looking good

Colts (+7) over Bengals: Colts gotta win sometime, or at least lose by less than a TD

Cowboys (+7) over Pats: Coming off their bye week and can put up points to hang with the Pats

Saints (-4) over Bucs: really, after that week and with no blount, thats the spread?

And Im real confident about all those



-- Edited by 6ixty on Thursday 13th of October 2011 03:15:13 PM

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Guru

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Colts (+7) over Bengals

Green Bay (-14.5) over St.Louis (their top three corners are gone, career day for Rodgers!)

Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland

Saints (-4) over Buccaneers

Jets (-7) over Miami

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Negus

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i wanna do a little more research before i put some actual money on the line but so far here are some observations:

- colts to cover at least 7 vs the bengals.  colts have been close in there games since painter took over (cheifs, bucs both under 5) and the bengals barley beat the jags last week.  i can easily see the colts winning this one

- i could see dallas covering, but r u ready to put money on romo vs the pats at home?  sounds a little risky to me

- def think saints can take the bucs for more than 4.  looks like a safe bet which means it probably is not going to happen

- bears over vikes by 2-3 looks tempting!

 



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Young Money

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cant use sports book the registration isnt available in MD... danny how the hell you do it?

Untitled.jpg



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Negus

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that is BULL SH1T!

we need to find something i am pretty exicted about this



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Guru

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Does it have NY?

If so just use my address.

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Young Money

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name and address has to match up with the CC. so just go ahead and pass over that # as well biggrin.gif



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Young Money

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we can use bodog

http://sports.bodog.eu/sports-betting/nfl-football.jsp


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Blinn College Buccaneers Alum

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6ixty wrote:

cant use sports book the registration isnt available in MD... danny how the hell you do it?

Untitled.jpg


 Like I said before, I did this over a year ago, and they used to accept prepaid Visa cards that you could buy at convenient stores. You used to even be able to call Sportsbook and they would plug in your zip code and they would tell you where to buy them!

Things were so easy then. I tried Bodog and had the same issue, let me know if it works.



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Young Money

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aight were good to go

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Negus

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NICE!  does it do the same thing as sportsbook where u can play around with the bets to see how much money u can win?



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